In 1954, Roger Bannister became the first man to run a mile in under four minutes, shattering what was once believed to be an impossible barrier. Now, nearly three-quarters of a century later, scientists suggest that a woman could achieve the same feat—a milestone that would redefine the limits of human endurance.

A study published in Royal Society Open Science theorizes that Faith Kipyegon, the Kenyan middle-distance runner who holds the women’s world record at 4 minutes 7.64 seconds, could break the four-minute barrier as soon as this year. By optimizing her race conditions, particularly reducing aerodynamic drag with better drafting from pacesetters, she could potentially achieve a time of 3:59.37.

The Science Behind the Four-Minute Mile for Women

The idea of a woman breaking the four-minute mile is not just speculation—it is backed by science. The study’s authors, including Rodger Kram, a biomechanist and emeritus professor at the University of Colorado, analyzed how improved drafting techniques could enhance performance.

What Is Drafting, and How Can It Help?

Drafting is a racing technique where a runner follows closely behind another athlete to reduce air resistance. The lead runner takes on the aerodynamic drag, allowing the trailing runner to conserve energy. This technique is widely used in cycling, speed skating, and car racing.

In running, effective drafting can reduce energy expenditure by up to 6%, allowing an athlete to maintain a higher pace for longer. The study suggests that by perfectly positioning herself behind pacesetters, Kipyegon could cut enough resistance to shave critical seconds off her record time.

Is It Really Possible?

Some critics dismiss the idea as unrealistic or a publicity stunt, much like the initial skepticism surrounding Bannister’s record-breaking run. Many believed back then that the human body simply couldn’t sustain such a speed over a mile.

However, history has repeatedly shown that perceived limits are meant to be broken.

• Before 1954, experts believed the human body was physically incapable of running a mile in under four minutes. Bannister proved them wrong.

• The two-hour marathon was also once deemed impossible. In 2019, Eliud Kipchoge ran 1:59:40 under controlled conditions, proving that barriers exist to be overcome.

• The progression of women’s records has continuously pushed beyond expectations. In 1964, the women’s mile record was 4:39.2—today, it stands at 4:07.64, a 30-second improvement over six decades.

With advances in training methods, sports science, and race strategy, experts believe that a sub-four-minute mile for women is not a matter of if, but when.

The Psychological Barrier: Why This Record Matters

Beyond the physical aspect, breaking the four-minute barrier carries deep psychological significance. For decades, women in sports have been told what they “cannot” do.

Rodger Kram, one of the study’s authors, addressed this skepticism head-on:

“A lot of people said it was physiologically impossible for Bannister or anybody to break four minutes, and I’m sure lots of bros are going to say, ‘No way a woman is ever going to run four minutes; it’s seven seconds away.’ But people have said women can’t do a lot of things, and then they have.”

A successful attempt would not only rewrite record books but also inspire a new generation of female athletes. Much like Bannister’s achievement in 1954 paved the way for faster mile times among men, a sub-four-minute mile for women could eliminate mental barriers and lead to a rapid surge in performance levels.

What’s Next?

Faith Kipyegon remains at the forefront of this potential milestone. As the reigning world record holder in the 1,500m, mile, and 5,000m, she has already redefined women’s middle-distance running.

If the conditions are right—strategic pacing, optimal weather, and improved drafting techniques—she could make history as the first woman to run a mile in under four minutes.

The Future of Women’s Running

Every great achievement in sports starts as an impossible dream. If a woman finally breaks the four-minute mile, it won’t just be about one athlete—it will symbolize a shift in what is considered possible for women in sports.

The countdown has begun. The question isn’t if a woman will run a sub-four-minute mile—it’s when.